If we had started emissions cuts sooner, our carbon budget might have stretched farther into the future, allowing for more gradual cuts. But now, in order to keep warming under 1.5 °C globally given historical emissions, the world’s emissions need to reach net zero by 2050; by 2030 they’d need to be cut roughly in half. And even that might not be enough.

Keeping warming under 1.5 °C is possible, though the goal is slipping out of reach. Given that global surface temperatures have increased by about 1.1 °C since before 1900, we’re already dangerously close to global targets. How much more temperatures rise in the future will be a function of emissions, and the sooner significant cuts happen, the more likely we are to keep warming close to the 1.5 °C target. 

It’s clear that building renewable energy and finding other ways to cut emissions can slow climate change. Whether you see it as good news or bad news, the future will be dictated by the world’s actions today and in the near future.