A few major mortgage rates saw increases over the last seven days. The average interest rates for both 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgages trended upward. For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage also moved upward.

After nearly a year of rising mortgage rates, borrowers are finally starting to see some relief. Rates have been gradually declining since they hit their peak in late 2022, though current rates remain nearly double what they were during the record-low rate environment of the pandemic.

Inflation, and the series of rate hikes the Federal Reserve implemented in 2022 in an attempt to curb it, contributed in part to the rise in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates reached a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macroeconomic environment is changing again.

Overall inflation remains high but has been slowly but consistently falling every month since it peaked in June 2022. The Fed’s decision to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25% on Feb. 1 after its latest meeting — the smallest increase since March 2022 — suggests that inflation may be cooling and the central bank may be able to ease up on its rate hikes.

What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time. “Expect mortgage rates to yo-yo up and down in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus about when the Fed will conclude raising interest rates,” says Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. (Like CNET Money, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures.) McBride expects rates to fall more consistently as the year progresses. “Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates will end the year near 5.25%,” he predicts.

Rather than worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their situation. Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your odds of qualifying for the lowest rate available. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you compare apples to apples.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 6.72%, which is an increase of 19 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed mortgages are the most frequently used loan term. A 30-year fixed mortgage will usually have a higher interest rate than a 15-year fixed rate mortgage — but also a lower monthly payment. Although you’ll pay more interest over time — you’re paying off your loan over a longer timeframe — if you’re looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.10%, which is an increase of 25 basis points from seven days ago. Compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year fixed mortgage with the same loan value and interest rate will have a larger monthly payment. But a 15-year loan will usually be the better deal, as long as you can afford the monthly payments. You’ll typically get a lower interest rate, and you’ll pay less interest in total because you’re paying off your mortgage much quicker.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages

A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 5.52%, a climb of 6 basis points compared to last week. With an ARM mortgage, you’ll typically get a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage for the first five years. But you may end up paying more after that time, depending on the terms of your loan and how the rate adjusts with the market rate. If you plan to sell or refinance your house before the rate changes, an adjustable-rate mortgage may make sense for you. But if that’s not the case, you could be on the hook for a significantly higher interest rate if the market rates shift.

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021 but increased steadily throughout 2022. The Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate — which influences the cost of most consumer loans, including mortgages — seven times in 2022 in an attempt to curb record-high inflation. Though the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, higher inflation and a higher federal funds rate tend to lead to higher mortgage rates.

The Fed’s latest 0.25% increase — smaller than its six previous increases of 0.75% or 0.5% — represents a shift in the Fed’s stance and suggests that the central bank might be less aggressive in its rate hikes in 2023 if inflation continues to come down. But inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target range and Fed officials have stated repeatedly (PDF) that additional rate hikes — albeit smaller ones — will be necessary. All said, while we may see mortgage rates pull back gradually this year, borrowers shouldn’t expect a sharp drop or a return to pandemic lows.

We use rates collected by Bankrate, which is owned by the same parent company as CNET, to track daily mortgage rate trends. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders nationwide:

Today’s mortgage interest rates

Rates as of Feb. 15, 2023.

How to shop for the best mortgage rate

You can get a personalized mortgage rate by connecting with your local mortgage broker or using an online calculator. In order to find the best home mortgage, you’ll need to consider your goals and overall financial situation.

Things that affect the interest rate you might get on your mortgage include: your credit score, down payment, loan-to-value ratio and your debt-to-income ratio. Having a higher credit score, a larger down payment, a low DTI, a low LTV or any combination of those factors can help you get a lower interest rate.

Besides the mortgage interest rate, factors including closing costs, fees, discount points and taxes might also impact the cost of your house. Be sure to speak with multiple lenders — like local and national banks, credit unions and online lenders — and comparison shop to find the best mortgage loan for you.

What is a good loan term?

When picking a mortgage, it’s important to consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The mortgage terms most commonly offered are 15 years and 30 years, although you can also find 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages. Mortgages are further divided into fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. For fixed-rate mortgages, interest rates are fixed for the life of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates for an adjustable-rate mortgage are only fixed for a certain amount of time (most frequently five, seven or 10 years). After that, the rate fluctuates annually based on the market interest rate.

When choosing between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage, you should think about the length of time you plan to live in your home. If you plan on living long-term in a new house, fixed-rate mortgages may be the better option. While adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront, fixed-rate mortgages are more stable over time. If you don’t plan to keep your new house for more than three to 10 years, however, an adjustable-rate mortgage could give you a better deal. The best loan term depends on your personal situation and goals, so make sure to consider what’s important to you when choosing a mortgage.