A couple of principal mortgage rates trended downwards over the last seven days. Fifteen-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates both moved slightly lower. We also saw a slide in the average rate of 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

After nearly a year of rising mortgage rates, borrowers finally saw some relief late last year. Rates have declined since they hit their peak in late 2022, though current rates remain nearly double what they were during the record-low rate environment of the pandemic.

Inflation, and the series of rate hikes the Federal Reserve implemented in 2022 in an attempt to curb it, contributed in part to the rise in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates hit a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macroeconomic environment is changing again.

Overall inflation remains high but has been slowly but consistently falling every month since it peaked in June 2022. The Fed’s decision to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25% on Feb. 1 after its latest meeting — the smallest increase since March 2022 — suggests that inflation may be cooling and the central bank may be able to ease up on its rate hikes.

What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time. “Expect mortgage rates to yo-yo up and down in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus about when the Fed will conclude raising interest rates,” says Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. (Like CNET Money, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures.) McBride expects rates to fall more consistently as the year progresses. “Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates will end the year near 5.25%,” he predicts.

Rather than worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their situation. Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your odds of qualifying for the lowest rate available. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you compare apples to apples.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average interest rate for a standard 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.91%, which is a decrease of 3 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) The most common loan term is a 30-year fixed mortgage. A 30-year fixed mortgage will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year fixed rate mortgage — but also a lower monthly payment. You won’t be able to pay off your house as quickly and you’ll pay more interest over time, but a 30-year fixed mortgage is a good option if you’re looking to minimize your monthly payment.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.17%, which is a decrease of 2 basis points compared to a week ago. You’ll definitely have a larger monthly payment with a 15-year fixed mortgage compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, even if the interest rate and loan amount are the same. But a 15-year loan will usually be the better deal, as long as you’re able to afford the monthly payments. These include typically being able to get a lower interest rate, paying off your mortgage sooner, and paying less total interest in the long run.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages

A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 5.77%, a decrease of 8 basis points from the same time last week. With an adjustable-rate mortgage mortgage, you’ll typically get a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage for the first five years. But since the rate adjusts with the market rate, you might end up paying more after that time, as described in the terms of your loan. If you plan to sell or refinance your house before the rate changes, an ARM might make sense for you. If not, shifts in the market could significantly increase your interest rate.

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021 but increased steadily throughout 2022. The Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate — which influences the cost of most consumer loans, including mortgages — seven times in 2022 in an attempt to curb record-high inflation. Though the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, higher inflation and a higher federal funds rate tend to lead to higher mortgage rates.

The Fed’s latest 0.25% increase — smaller than its six previous increases of 0.75% or 0.5% — represents a shift in the Fed’s stance and suggests that the central bank might be less aggressive in its rate hikes in 2023 if inflation continues to come down. But inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target range and Fed officials have stated repeatedly (PDF) that additional rate hikes — albeit smaller ones — will be necessary. All said, while we may see mortgage rates pull back gradually this year, borrowers shouldn’t expect a sharp drop or a return to pandemic lows.

We use data collected by Bankrate, which is owned by the same parent company as CNET, to track daily mortgage rate trends. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the country:

Current average mortgage interest rates

Rates as of March 21, 2023.

How to find the best mortgage rates

To find a personalized mortgage rate, meet with your local mortgage broker or use an online mortgage service. When shopping around for home mortgage rates, think about your goals and current financial situation.

A range of factors — including your down payment, credit score, loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio — will all affect your mortgage rate. Having a good credit score, a higher down payment, a low DTI, a low LTV or any combination of those factors can help you get a lower interest rate.

Apart from the mortgage interest rate, additional costs including closing costs, fees, discount points and taxes might also affect the cost of your house. Be sure to shop around with multiple lenders — such as credit unions and online lenders in addition to local and national banks — in order to get a loan that works best for you.

How does the loan term impact my mortgage?

One important thing to keep in mind when choosing a mortgage is the loan term, or payment schedule. The loan terms most commonly offered are 15 years and 30 years, although you can also find 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages. Another important distinction is between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. For fixed-rate mortgages, interest rates are stable for the life of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates for an adjustable-rate mortgage are only set for a certain amount of time (typically five, seven or 10 years). After that, the rate fluctuates annually based on the market interest rate.

When choosing between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage, you should consider how long you plan to stay in your house. Fixed-rate mortgages might be a better fit for people who plan on living in a home for quite some time. While adjustable-rate mortgages might have lower interest rates upfront, fixed-rate mortgages are more stable in the long term. If you don’t plan to keep your new house for more than three to 10 years, though, an adjustable-rate mortgage might give you a better deal. There is no best loan term as a general rule; it all depends on your goals and your current financial situation. Make sure to do your research and think about what’s most important to you when choosing a mortgage.