Some closely followed mortgage rates dropped off over the last seven days. Fifteen-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates both slid. The average rate of the most common type of variable-rate mortgage, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, also tapered off.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis point increase to its benchmark short-term interest rate on March 22. This could have an impact on mortgage rates, but it’s difficult to say just how much for a market already in flux.

“We’re in one of the most volatile markets in terms of rates since 2008,” says Jennifer Beeston, senior vice president at Guaranteed Rate, a national mortgage lender.

Mortgages hit a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macroeconomic environment is changing again. Rates dipped significantly in January before climbing back up in February.

While rates don’t directly track changes to the federal funds rate, they do respond to inflation. Overall, inflation remains high but has been slowly but consistently falling every month since it peaked in June 2022.

After raising rates dramatically in 2022, the Fed opted for smaller, 25-basis-point rate increases in its first two meetings of 2023. The decision to hike by 0.25% on March 22 suggests that inflation is cooling and the central bank may be able to ease up — but not stop — on its rate hikes.

While mortgage rates have dipped a bit from their December 2022 peak, they still aren’t dramatically lower. Fewer buyers are willing to jump into the housing market, driving demand down and causing home prices to ease, but that’s only part of the home affordability equation.

“Even though home prices in many parts of the country have fallen since the start of the year, high rates make buying prohibitively expensive for many,” says Jacob Channel, senior economist at loan marketplace LendingTree. It’s still difficult for many buyers, particularly those looking for their first home, to afford a monthly payment.

What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time. “Expect mortgage rates to yo-yo up and down in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus about when the Fed will conclude raising interest rates,” says Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. (Like CNET Money, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures.) McBride expects rates to fall more consistently as the year progresses. “Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates will end the year near 5.25%,” he predicts.

Rather than worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their situation.

“Instead of getting into the minutiae of what the market’s doing every six seconds, buyers need to focus on what it is they’re really trying to accomplish and have a good game plan,” Beeston says.

Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your odds of qualifying for the lowest rate available. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you compare apples to apples.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages

For a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate you’ll pay is 6.88%, which is a decline of 6 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) The most frequently used loan term is a 30-year fixed mortgage. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage will usually have a smaller monthly payment than a 15-year one — but usually a higher interest rate. Although you’ll pay more interest over time — you’re paying off your loan over a longer timeframe — if you’re looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.15%, which is a decrease of 3 basis points from seven days ago. You’ll definitely have a bigger monthly payment with a 15-year fixed mortgage compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, even if the interest rate and loan amount are the same. But a 15-year loan will usually be the better deal, if you can afford the monthly payments. These include typically being able to get a lower interest rate, paying off your mortgage sooner, and paying less total interest in the long run.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages

A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 5.71%, a downtick of 4 basis points compared to last week. You’ll usually get a lower interest rate (compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage) with a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage in the first five years of the mortgage. But shifts in the market may cause your interest rate to increase after that time, as detailed in the terms of your loan. If you plan to sell or refinance your house before the rate changes, an adjustable-rate mortgage may make sense for you. But if that’s not the case, you may be on the hook for a much higher interest rate if the market rates shift.

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021 but increased steadily throughout 2022. Now, mortgage rates are roughly twice what they were a year ago, pushed up by persistently high inflation. That high inflation prompted the Fed to raise its target federal funds rate seven times in 2022. By raising rates, the Fed makes it more expensive to borrow money and more appealing to keep money in savings, suppressing demand for goods and services.

Mortgage interest rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed’s actions in the same way that, say, rates for a home equity line of credit do. But they do respond to inflation. As a result, cooling inflation data and positive signals from the Fed will influence mortgage rate movement more than the most recent 25-basis-point rate hike.

We use information collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the US:

Average mortgage interest rates

Rates as of March 29, 2023.

How to shop for the best mortgage rate

To find a personalized mortgage rate, talk to your local mortgage broker or use an online mortgage service. In order to find the best home mortgage, you’ll need to take into account your goals and current finances.

Specific interest rates will vary based on factors including credit score, down payment, debt-to-income ratio and loan-to-value ratio. Generally, you want a higher credit score, a higher down payment, a lower DTI and a lower LTV to get a lower interest rate.

Aside from the mortgage interest rate, additional costs including closing costs, fees, discount points and taxes might also factor into the cost of your home. Be sure to comparison shop with multiple lenders — such as credit unions and online lenders in addition to local and national banks — in order to get a mortgage loan that’s best for you.

How does the loan term impact my mortgage?

When picking a mortgage, it’s important to consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The mortgage terms most commonly offered are 15 years and 30 years, although you can also find 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages. Another important distinction is between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. The interest rates in a fixed-rate mortgage are set for the duration of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates for an adjustable-rate mortgage are only stable for a certain amount of time (most frequently five, seven or 10 years). After that, the rate changes annually based on the market rate.

One thing to take into consideration when deciding between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage is how long you plan on staying in your house. Fixed-rate mortgages might be a better fit if you plan on staying in a home for quite some time. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability over time in comparison to adjustable-rate mortgages, but adjustable-rate mortgages can sometimes offer lower interest rates upfront. However, you might get a better deal with an adjustable-rate mortgage if you’re only planning to keep your home for a couple years. The best loan term depends on your own situation and goals, so be sure to think about what’s important to you when choosing a mortgage.