Almost 20% of all new vehicles sold worldwide will be electric this year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. That’s a year-over-year increase of 35%, says the organization, whose 42 member nations account for three quarters of the planet’s energy demand.

Released Wednesday, the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook predicted that more than 14 million EVs will be sold by the end of 2023, zooming past the record 10 million purchased in 2022.

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“Electric vehicles are one of the driving forces in the new global energy economy that is rapidly emerging — and they are bringing about a historic transformation of the car manufacturing industry worldwide,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

Birol added that this trend suggests that by 2030, global energy demands will require at least 5 million fewer barrels of oil a day.
“Cars are just the first wave,” he said. “Electric buses and trucks will follow soon.”

Electric vehicles accounted for 14% of the global automotive market in 2022, a massive expansion from 4% in 2020. According to the IEA’s projections, that figure will jump to 18% by the close of 2023.

By far, China is leading the charge: 60% of global EV sales last year were in China, according to the report, and the country is home to more than half of all zero-emissions vehicles on the road today. Europe and the US took second and third place, respectively.

The IEA predicted electric vehicles will average 60% of total vehicle sales in those three markets by 2030.

The agency pointed to government programs — like the tax incentives and charging-station infrastructure baked into the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act — as well as prices for smaller models coming down to compete with combustion-engine autos in the next few years.

The report was also optimistic about EV growth in Southeast Asia, where two- and three-wheel models are more popular. In Thailand, EV sales doubled in 2022 to reach 3% of the market share, and in India and Indonesia, they tripled to 1.5%.

“A combination of effective policies and private sector investment is likely to increase these shares in the future,” the IEA said.

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