After being paused since March 2020, federal student loan payments resume in October. Many borrowers are not prepared: According to a new survey from Credit Karma, 45% said that they expect to fall behind on their loan payments once the forbearance ends.

Meanwhile, 37% said they didn’t set aside any money in advance of payments resuming. 

“While many borrowers were able to get ahead in other areas of their finances during forbearance, others struggled to stay on top of other bills and expenses,” Credit Karma consumer finance advocate Courtney Alev said in a statement.

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In many cases, Alev added, inflation and increased interest rates swallowed up any chance they had of getting ahead.

According to the survey, 53% of borrowers were already struggling to pay bills before factoring in an expense they haven’t had to consider for three-and-a-half years. More than half (56%) said they’ll have to choose between their student loan payment and necessities like rent or groceries. 

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Conducted by The Harris Poll between July 25 and 27, the survey polled 2,059 U.S. adults, 394 of whom had outstanding federal student loans.

Unsurprisingly, those in a less secure financial situation are more at risk: Fifty-three percent of borrowers with a household income of less than $50,000 expect to go delinquent, compared to 36% of those earning $100,000.

The consequences won’t necessarily be as severe as they could be, though. In June, the Biden administration announced a yearlong transition period, in which borrowers who miss monthly payments won’t be considered delinquent by their loan servicer.

Though interest will still accrue during the period, which will run from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024, these accounts won’t be placed in default, reported to credit bureaus or referred to debt collection agencies.

“Borrowers who can pay should do so, but this on-ramp period gives borrowers who cannot make payments right away the necessary time to adjust,” the Department of Education said in a statement.

While many respondents plan to decrease non-essential spending, pick up extra work or even dip into their savings to pay down their student loans, a quarter said they intend to delay financial milestones like having kids or buying a home and nearly the same percentage (23%) intend to decrease retirement savings contributions.

Thirty-four percent plan on applying for an income-driven repayment plan, which can significantly lower monthly payments.

According to a separate survey from U.S. News & World Report, only 30% of borrowers know when their payments are resuming. 

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